← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 41% | 33% | 2.25 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 32% | 27% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 41% | 3.30 | value: +34% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 854.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1350.31 | 1448.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.83 | -49.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 15.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.14 |
| state index | -0.98 | -1.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |