← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 4, 07:05 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 39% | 37% | 2.40 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 33% | 35% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens +0 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Lille OSC +0 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 56% | 1.85 | value: +4% |
| Under | 48% | 44% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ | Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille OSC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nathan Ngoy · Lille OSC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Adrien Thomasson · Racing Club de Lens |
| 49' | ⚽ | Félix Correia · Lille OSC |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Matías Fernández-Pardo · Lille OSC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Berke Özer · Lille OSC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Saud Abdulhamid · Racing Club de Lens |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ethan Mbappé · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Racing Club de Lens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days |
| 246.00 |
| 277.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1733.13 | 1799.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.21 | -15.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 1.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.00 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.78 |
| league points | 47.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 13.12 | 14.97 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 2.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 22.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | 1.52 |
| solidity v1 | 0.85 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 27.02 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.59 |