← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 54% | 47% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 3.90 | fair |
| Paris FC win | 22% | 29% | 4.33 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC +0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Olympique de Marseille +0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 60% | 1.73 | value: +4% |
| Under | 45% | 40% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Mason Greenwood · Olympique de Marseille |
| 43' | 🟨 | Maxime López · Paris FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille |
| 72' | 🟨 | Facundo Medina · Olympique de Marseille |
| 81' | 🟨 | Hamed Junior Traorè · Olympique de Marseille |
| 82' | ⚽ | Jonathan Ikoné · Paris FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bilal Nadir · Olympique de Marseille |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gerónimo Rulli · Olympique de Marseille |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Ilan Kebbal · Paris FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris FC | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 183.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1587.14 | 1779.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.65 | -35.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| league points | 20.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 5.99 | 2.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | 1.10 |
| solidity v1 | 0.42 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 29.15 | 28.57 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.06 | 0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.30 |