← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 63% | 66% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.20 | value: +11% |
| AJ Auxerre win | 14% | 7% | 6.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre −1.25 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Racing Club de Lens −1.25 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Adrien Thomasson · Racing Club de Lens |
| 24' | 🟨 | Sinaly Diomandé · AJ Auxerre |
| 27' | 🟨 | Kévin Danois · AJ Auxerre |
| 51' | 🟨 | Clement Akpa · AJ Auxerre |
| 60' | 🟨 | Marvin Senaya · AJ Auxerre |
| 65' | ⚽ | Wesley Saïd · Racing Club de Lens |
| 80' | 🟨 | Morgan Guilavogui · Racing Club de Lens |
| 90' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · AJ Auxerre |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Racing Club de Lens | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Bollaert-Delelis |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 200.00 | 200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1800.88 | 1582.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.77 | 1.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.92 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 40.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 14.84 | 12.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.35 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.23 | 0.19 |
| solidity v1 | 1.15 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.88 | 24.74 |
| state index | 1.73 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 1.77 |