← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Wed, Oct 29, 08:05 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 49% | 45% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.64 | fair |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 25% | 29% | 3.92 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Toulouse FC −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 50% | 1.92 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 50% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 50' | ⚽ | Esteban Lepaul · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 54' | ⚽ | Mousa Tamari · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 58' | ⚽ | Charlie Cresswell · Toulouse FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Mousa Tamari · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 75' | 🟨 | Brice Samba · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 78' | 🟨 | Rasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse FC |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Aron Dønnum · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aron Dønnum · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 881.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1678.04 | 1655.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.40 | -17.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 48.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 4.13 | 3.16 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 0.96 |
| solidity v1 | 0.83 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.72 | 27.62 |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.34 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.49 |