← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 07:05 PM UTC · ref: François Letexier, France
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 47% | 43% | 2.08 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AJ Auxerre +0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Racing Club de Lens +0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 57% | 1.82 | value: +3% |
| Under | 47% | 43% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps |