← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 27, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: M. Vernice
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 61% | 61% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.48 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 17% | 17% | 5.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Racing Club de Lens −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 60% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 40% | 2.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Ado Onaiwu · AJ Auxerre |
| 40' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Perrin · AJ Auxerre |
| 43' | 🟨 | Abdulay Juma Bah · Racing Club de Lens |
| 44' | ⚽ | Ado Onaiwu · AJ Auxerre |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ado Onaiwu · AJ Auxerre |
| 50' | 🟨 | Han-Noah Massengo · AJ Auxerre |
| 52' | 🟨 | Donovan Léon · AJ Auxerre |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jeremy Agbonifo · Racing Club de Lens |
| 73' | ⚽ | Ki-Jana Hoever · AJ Auxerre |
| 75' | 🟨 | Adrien Thomasson · Racing Club de Lens |
| 81' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Racing Club de Lens | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Bollaert-Delelis |
| 🟨 |
| Ruben Aguilar · Racing Club de Lens |
| 85' | 🟥 | Florian Sotoca · Racing Club de Lens |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eros Maddy · AJ Auxerre |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 330.00 | 939.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 3.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1740.36 | 1687.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.32 | 2.93 |
| eye test v1 | 1.18 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.87 | -0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.74 |
| league points | 45.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | -0.20 |
| solidity v1 | 0.42 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.44 | 26.44 |
| state index | 0.66 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 0.92 |