← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 44% | 48% | 2.20 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.34 | fair |
| Nantes win | 27% | 24% | 3.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Nantes +0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 51% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 49% | 2.15 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Jonathan Gradit · Racing Club de Lens |
| 36' | ⚽ | Louis Leroux · Nantes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Facundo Medina · Racing Club de Lens |
| 58' | 🟨 | Kelvin Amian · Nantes |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Moses Simon · Nantes |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Neil El Aynaoui · Racing Club de Lens |
| 66' | 🟨 | Adrien Thomasson · Racing Club de Lens |
| 70' | 🟥 | M'Bala Nzola · Racing Club de Lens |
| 82' | 🟨 | Anthony Lopes · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Angelo Fulgini · Racing Club de Lens |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Racing Club de Lens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| 90' | ⚽ | Meschak Elia · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 359.00 | 267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1598.55 | 1757.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.44 | -23.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 21.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.83 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 0.20 |
| solidity v1 | -0.07 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.88 | 28.48 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.25 |