← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 08:05 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 61% | 63% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.41 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 17% | 18% | 5.83 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre +1 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Olympique de Marseille +1 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 65% | 1.67 | value: +9% |
| Under | 41% | 35% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Perrin · AJ Auxerre |
| 38' | 🟨 | Derek Cornelius · Olympique de Marseille |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ki-Jana Hoever · AJ Auxerre |
| 63' | 🟨 | Derek Cornelius · Olympique de Marseille |
| 63' | 🟥 | Derek Cornelius · Olympique de Marseille |
| 75' | 🟨 | Gerónimo Rulli · Olympique de Marseille |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Jubal · AJ Auxerre |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jubal · AJ Auxerre |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AJ Auxerre | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 875.00 | 236.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 6.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 9.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 3.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1654.75 | 1847.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.34 | -0.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 2.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.70 |
| league points | 25.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 90.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 70.80 |
| rest days | 8.01 | 7.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 2.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 11.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 20.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | 2.91 |
| solidity v1 | -0.23 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 7.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 11.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.80 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 26.98 |
| state index | -0.45 | 1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | 1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 3.18 |