← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 8, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Lissorgue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 40% | 40% | 2.44 | fair |
| Racing Club de Lens win | 32% | 31% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.54 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| OGC Nice −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 51% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 49% | 2.11 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Mohamed-Ali Cho · OGC Nice |
| 9' | 🟨 | Adrien Thomasson · Racing Club de Lens |
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Gaëtan Laborde · OGC Nice |
| 31' | 🟨 | Facundo Medina · Racing Club de Lens |
| 57' | 🟨 | Facundo Medina · Racing Club de Lens |
| 57' | 🟥 | Facundo Medina · Racing Club de Lens |
| 64' | ⚽ | Jonathan Clauss · OGC Nice |
| 88' | 🟨 | Hamzat Ojediran · Racing Club de Lens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Racing Club de Lens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 252.00 | 252.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1707.20 | 1733.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.23 | 3.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.76 |
| league points | 34.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 7.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | 0.90 |
| solidity v1 | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.27 | 28.33 |
| state index | 0.39 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.78 |