← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Vernice
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 68% | 76% | 1.41 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 20% | 16% | 4.82 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 12% | 8% | 8.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens −1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Montpellier −1.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 63% | 1.71 | value: +7% |
| Under | 43% | 37% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Remy Labeau Lascary · Racing Club de Lens |
| 43' | 🟨 | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 71' | 🟨 | Modibo Sagnan · Montpellier |
| 79' | 🟨 | Florian Sotoca · Racing Club de Lens |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brice Samba · Racing Club de Lens |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enzo Tchato Mbiayi · Montpellier |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Bećir Omeragić · Racing Club de Lens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Racing Club de Lens | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Stade Bollaert-Delelis |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 190.00 | 68.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1723.54 | 1573.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.35 | -14.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.56 |
| league points | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 8.76 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | 0.03 |
| solidity v1 | -0.31 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.54 | 25.25 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.22 |