← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Turpin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 59% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.85 | fair |
| Nantes win | 16% | 16% | 6.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens −0.75 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Nantes −0.75 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 53% | 1.77 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 47% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Przemysław Frankowski · Racing Club de Lens |
| 36' | 🟨 | Facundo Medina · Racing Club de Lens |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Moses Simon · Nantes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Remy Labeau Lascary · Racing Club de Lens |
| 71' | ⚽ | Nicolas Cozza · Nantes |
| 86' | ⚽ | Hamzat Ojediran · Racing Club de Lens |
| 90' | ⚽ | Adrien Thomasson · Racing Club de Lens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Racing Club de Lens | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Bollaert-Delelis |
| coach days | 161.00 | 253.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1781.01 | 1595.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.91 | -20.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 70.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | — |
| league points | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.08 | 5.93 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -0.24 |
| solidity v1 | -0.09 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.29 | 28.20 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.06 |