← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sat, May 4, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 49% | 51% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.72 | fair |
| Metz win | 25% | 25% | 3.95 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Metz +0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 55% | 1.91 | value: +5% |
| Under | 49% | 45% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Georges Mikautadze · Metz |
| 23' | ⚽ | Amine Gouiri · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 44' | 🟨 | Adrien Truffert · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Pape Diallo · Metz |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ismaël Traoré · Metz |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Benjamin Bourigeaud · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 75' | 🟨 | Christophe Herelle · Metz |
| 75' | 🟨 | Arthur Theate · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 90' | 🟥 | Georges Mikautadze · Metz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arnaud Kalimuendo · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| 90' | ⚽ | Arnaud Kalimuendo · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 703.00 | 185.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1616.04 | 1771.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.40 | -40.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 29.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 32.60 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 6.25 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | 0.80 |
| solidity v1 | -1.20 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.11 | 25.46 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.69 |