← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 28, 03:05 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 44% | 46% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 28% | 26% | 3.59 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 −0.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Stade Brestois 29 −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 53% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 47% | 2.20 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 79' | ⚽ | Martin Terrier · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 80' | 🟨 | Arnaud Kalimuendo · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enzo Le Fée · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lilian Brassier · Stade Brestois 29 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 179.00 | 483.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1783.40 | 1762.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.19 | -14.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 67.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 42.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 0.74 |
| solidity v1 | 0.05 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.15 | 26.77 |
| state index | 0.66 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.51 |