← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 16, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 48% | 45% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +14% |
| OGC Nice win | 24% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Racing Club de Lens −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 57% | 1.82 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 43% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Terem Moffi · OGC Nice |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ruben Aguilar · Racing Club de Lens |
| 40' | 🟨 | Khéphren Thuram · OGC Nice |
| 46' | 🟨 | Romain Perraud · OGC Nice |
| 53' | ⚽ | Khéphren Thuram · OGC Nice |
| 62' | 🟨 | Przemysław Frankowski · Racing Club de Lens |
| 65' | 🟨 | Abdukodir Khusanov · Racing Club de Lens |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Terem Moffi · OGC Nice |
| 76' | ⚽ | Elye Wahi · Racing Club de Lens |
| 78' | 🟨 | Pablo Rosario · OGC Nice |
| 89' | 🟨 | Adrien Thomasson |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Racing Club de Lens | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Bollaert-Delelis |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 1476.00 |
| 289.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1782.72 | 1689.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.38 | -52.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.80 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 42.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| solidity v1 | -0.49 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.02 | 26.38 |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.13 |