← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 2, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Léonard
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 59% | 54% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.20 | fair |
| Clermont win | 18% | 24% | 5.51 | value: +30% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Clermont +1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Olympique de Marseille +1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 54% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 46% | 2.29 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 11 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Gabriel-Montpied |