← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 1, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 58% | 61% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +6% |
| Nantes win | 18% | 12% | 5.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes −1 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 −1 | 45% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 59% | 1.94 | value: +15% |
| Under | 49% | 41% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Benjamin Bourigeaud · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 37' | 🟨 | Florent Mollet · Nantes |
| 45' | ⚽ | Pedro Chirivella · Nantes |
| 55' | 🟨 | Lorenz Assignon · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 58' | 🟨 | Benjamin Bourigeaud · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 58' | 🟨 | Samuel Moutoussamy · Nantes |
| 60' | 🟨 | Douglas Augusto · Nantes |
| 61' | 🟨 | Pedro Chirivella · Nantes |
| 62' | 🟨 | Nemanja Matić · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 73' | ⚽ | Désiré Doué · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 77' | 🟨 | Mostafa Mohamed · Nantes |
| 77' | 🟥 | Mostafa Mohamed · Nantes |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jean-Charles Castelletto · Nantes |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Arnaud Kalimuendo · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 944.00 | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1757.35 | 1560.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.94 | 31.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.85 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 7.15 | 8.16 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | -0.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.90 | -1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.67 | 26.15 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.23 |