β Ligue 1 2021-22 Β· Sat, May 14, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: B. Bastien
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 49% | 42% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
| Olympique de Marseille win | 25% | 32% | 4.11 | value: +32% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Olympique de Marseille β0.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 β0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 61% | 1.84 | value: +11% |
| Under | 47% | 39% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand