← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sun, Mar 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 76% | 79% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 13% | 6.04 | fair |
| Metz win | 8% | 8% | 13.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Metz −1.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 −1.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 57% | 1.71 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 43% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Martin Terrier · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 25' | 🟨 | Boubakar Kouyaté · Metz |
| 27' | ⚽ | Martin Terrier · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 40' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 54' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 58' | ⚽ | Hamari Traoré · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 64' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 70' | 🟨 | Fali Candé · Metz |
| 82' | 🟨 | Baptiste Santamaria · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 87' | ⚽ | Louis Mafouta · Metz |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 2 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.60 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 384.00 | 535.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1821.09 | 1568.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.73 | -4.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | -1.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.50 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 49.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 2.84 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 2.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 25.52 | 25.50 |
| state index | 1.37 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |