← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 19, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 71% | 65% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | 5.66 | fair |
| Nantes win | 11% | 20% | 10.36 | value: +110% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC +1.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Nantes +1.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 54% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 46% | 2.61 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Randal Kolo Muani · Nantes |
| 16' | ⚽ | Quentin Merlin · Nantes |
| 18' | 🟨 | Jean-Charles Castelletto · Nantes |
| 38' | 🟨 | Marco Verratti · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dennis Appiah · Nantes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Georginio Wijnaldum · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Ludovic Blas · Nantes |
| 47' | ⚽ | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Ángel Di María · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Achraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 383.00 | 414.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 3.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1608.54 | 1909.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.84 | 22.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.84 |
| league points | 35.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 91.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 65.60 |
| rest days | 6.25 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 2.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 2.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.77 |
| state index | 0.43 | 1.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | 1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |