← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sun, Jan 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.11 | value: +6% |
| Bordeaux win | 22% | 22% | 4.48 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux +0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace +0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 49% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 51% | 2.27 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Ui-Jo Hwang · Bordeaux |
| 21' | ⚽ | Alberth Elis · Bordeaux |
| 34' | 🟨 | Tom Lacoux · Bordeaux |
| 37' | 🟨 | Sanjin Prcić · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 39' | ⚽ | Ui-Jo Hwang · Bordeaux |
| 43' | ⚽ | Kévin Gameiro · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 57' | ⚽ | Kévin Gameiro · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 77' | 🟨 | Edson Mexer · Bordeaux |
| 83' | 🟨 | Yacine Adli · Bordeaux |
| 87' | 🟨 | Fransérgio · Bordeaux |
| 89' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 🟨 |
| Adrien Thomasson · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gaetan Poussin · Bordeaux |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ui-Jo Hwang · Bordeaux |
| 90' | ⚽ | Majeed Waris · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 206.00 | 267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 1.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1508.23 | 1660.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.32 | 46.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.72 |
| league points | 17.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.08 | 3.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.89 |
| state index | -0.74 | 1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |