← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 25, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 39% | 33% | 2.55 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.14 | value: +4% |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 30% | 34% | 3.22 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace +0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Lille OSC +0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 54% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 46% | 2.39 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Habib Diallo · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 23' | ⚽ | Jonathan David · Lille OSC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Alexander Djiku · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 38' | 🟨 | Maxime Le Marchand · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan David · Lille OSC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ivo Grbić · Lille OSC |
| 75' | ⚽ | Ibrahima Sissoko · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 78' | 🟨 | Tiago Djaló · Lille OSC |
| 79' | 🟥 | Adrien Thomasson · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 81' | 🟨 | Xeka · Lille OSC |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ludovic Ajorque · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Reinildo Mandava · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 147.00 | 86.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1581.48 | 1753.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.64 | -20.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 2.92 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.89 | 25.08 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |