← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, Dec 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 50% | 46% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.55 | value: +10% |
| Metz win | 22% | 23% | 4.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Metz −0.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 51% | 1.84 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 49% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Mohamed Simakan · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Dylan Bronn · Metz |
| 66' | ⚽ | Mohamed Simakan · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 70' | ⚽ | Opa Nguette · Metz |
| 73' | 🟨 | Thomas Delaine · Metz |
| 78' | ⚽ | Adrien Thomasson · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 80' | 🟨 | Habib Maïga · Metz |
| 84' | 🟨 | Adrien Thomasson · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 87' | 🟨 | Alexandre Oukidja · Metz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jean-Eudes Aholou · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Boubakar Kouyaté · Metz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Victorien Angban · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1626.00 | 73.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1623.28 | 1625.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.51 | -23.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| league points | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.91 | 26.52 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |