← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Sun, Mar 8, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 42% | 48% | 2.32 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 27% | 23% | 3.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Montpellier −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 56% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 44% | 2.45 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Faitout Maouassa · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 25' | 🟨 | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 28' | ⚽ | Adrien Hunou · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 57' | 🟨 | James Léa Siliki · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 68' | ⚽ | Flavien Tait · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Romain Del Castillo · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 77' | 🟨 | Benjamin Bourigeaud · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 77' | 🟨 | Junior Sambia · Montpellier |
| 86' | 🟨 | Pedro Mendes · Montpellier |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Adrien Hunou · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 463.00 | 1042.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1717.14 | 1707.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.04 | -4.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.80 |
| league points | 47.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.88 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.50 | 28.65 |
| state index | 0.61 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |