← Ligue 1 2019-20 · Fri, Jan 31, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 50% | 47% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
| Nantes win | 21% | 24% | 4.66 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Nantes −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 62% | 1.54 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 38% | 2.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Dennis Appiah · Nantes |
| 32' | 🟨 | Faitout Maouassa · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 47' | ⚽ (og) | Damien Da Silva · Nantes |
| 53' | 🟨 | Renaud Emond · Nantes |
| 59' | 🟨 | Romain Del Castillo · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Raphinha · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Alban Lafont · Nantes |
| 71' | ⚽ | Raphinha · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 80' | ⚽ | Moses Simon · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eduardo Camavinga · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Sacha Boey · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Abdoul Kader Bamba · Nantes |
| 90' | ⚽ | Benjamin Bourigeaud · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Raphinha · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 426.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1718.67 | 1652.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.79 | 10.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 37.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.16 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.50 | 25.39 |
| state index | 0.86 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |