← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 53% | 51% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.02 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 23% | 26% | 4.33 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 23 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 162.00 | 192.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1597.83 | 1443.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.31 | -14.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 45.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.97 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |