← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 42% | 38% | 2.34 | fair |
| Olympique de Marseille win | 33% | 35% | 2.95 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.87 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| coach days |
| 11.00 |
| 11.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1618.14 | 1713.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.66 | -30.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 1.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 55.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 62.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 20.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.26 | 1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 7.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 27.06 | 23.48 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |