← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Florent Batta, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 62% | 57% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | 4.53 | value: +13% |
| Angers SCO win | 17% | 18% | 5.86 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Ángel Di María · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 85' | 🟥 | Marquinhos · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Flavien Tait · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 27 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 2871.00 | 314.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1566.28 | 1872.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.97 | -66.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.70 |
| league points | 45.00 | 85.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 90.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 66.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | 2.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 27.52 |
| state index | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 1.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |