← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 63% | 56% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 27% | 4.70 | value: +27% |
| Lille OSC win | 17% | 16% | 5.84 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Martin Terrier · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 44' | 🟨 | Thiago Maia · Lille OSC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Loïc Rémy · Lille OSC |
| 68' | ⚽ | Boubakary Soumaré · Lille OSC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jonathan Bamba · Lille OSC |
| 74' | ⚽ | Léo Dubois · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 4.00 | 520.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1715.92 | 1678.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.21 | 50.54 |
| eye test v1 | 1.16 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| league points | 62.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.83 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 23.36 | 24.78 |
| state index | 0.67 | 1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |