← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 56% | 45% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.09 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 20% | 31% | 4.89 | value: +53% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ (og) | Ambroise Oyongo · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 21' | ⚽ (og) | Presnel Kimpembe · Montpellier |
| 29' | 🟨 | Presnel Kimpembe · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Juan Bernat · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mathías Suárez · Montpellier |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ellyes Skhiri · Montpellier |
| 62' | ⚽ | Ángel Di María · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Damien Le Tallec · Montpellier |
| 76' | 🟨 | Colin Dagba · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Andy Delort · Montpellier |
| 85' | ⚽ | Souleymane Camara · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Layvin Kurzawa · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days |
| 729.00 |
| 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1616.35 | 1895.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.94 | -50.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | 0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| league points | 51.00 | 84.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 89.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 66.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 2.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 2.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 23.59 |
| state index | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | 1.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |