← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 73% | 76% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.67 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 10% | 9% | 9.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 39' | ⚽ | Martin Terrier · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 58' | 🟨 | Thomas Mangani · Angers SCO |
| 64' | 🟨 | Wilfried Kanga · Angers SCO |
| 89' | ⚽ (og) | Lucas Tousart · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 11 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1235.00 |
| 2849.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1703.20 | 1558.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.03 | 12.72 |
| eye test v1 | 1.50 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.94 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| league points | 56.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.58 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.44 | — |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |