← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Hamel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 80% | 83% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 12% | 7.37 | fair |
| Dijon win | 7% | 5% | 14.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Martin Terrier · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 3' | ⚽ | Wesley Saïd · Dijon |
| 7' | ⚽ | Wesley Saïd · Dijon |
| 65' | ⚽ (og) | Rafael · Dijon |
| 79' | 🟨 | Wesley Lautoa · Dijon |
| 87' | 🟨 | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Marié · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 27 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1222.00 |
| 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1744.12 | 1428.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.24 | -18.28 |
| eye test v1 | 2.16 | -1.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.45 |
| league points | 56.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.80 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.30 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 24.91 | — |
| state index | 1.01 | -1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |