← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 35% | 30% | 2.76 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 33% | 42% | 2.95 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Rémi Oudin · Reims |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nuno Da Costa · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 46' | ⚽ | Anthony Gonçalves · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 56' | 🟨 | Adrien Thomasson · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 69' | ⚽ | Anthony Gonçalves · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Nuno Da Costa · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 83' | 🟨 | Björn Engels · Reims |
| 85' | 🟨 | Mathieu Cafaro · Reims |
| 88' | 🟨 | Adrien Thomasson · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 88' | 🟥 | Adrien Thomasson · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| coach days |
| 1006.00 |
| 702.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1567.56 | 1657.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.21 | 23.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 39.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 17.96 | 16.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.62 | — |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |