← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Gautier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 53% | 46% | 1.84 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.89 | value: +5% |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 22% | 27% | 4.39 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| coach days |
| 118.00 |
| 1214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1639.72 | 1735.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.19 | -8.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 2.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.42 |
| league points | 41.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | 1.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 8.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 10.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 9.00 |
| squad age | — | 24.99 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |