← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Gautier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 77% | 80% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.63 | fair |
| Olympique de Marseille win | 9% | 7% | 10.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 259.00 | 897.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1942.88 | 1633.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.34 | 38.77 |
| eye test v1 | 1.26 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 66.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.68 |
| league points | 74.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.74 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.31 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.30 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.44 | 24.98 |
| state index | 2.06 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |