← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Turpin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 65% | 67% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.68 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 14% | 13% | 6.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Martin Terrier · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 23' | 🟨 | Andy Delort · Montpellier |
| 36' | ⚽ | Florent Mollet · Montpellier |
| 58' | ⚽ | Moussa Dembélé · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 62' | 🟨 | Rafael · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 81' | 🟨 | Paul Lasne · Montpellier |
| 86' | ⚽ | Houssem Aouar · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | ⚽ | Souleymane Camara · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 13 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1202.00 |
| 685.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1730.13 | 1599.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.55 | -8.84 |
| eye test v1 | 2.01 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| league points | 50.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.45 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 23.24 | — |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |