← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 66% | 57% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.42 | fair |
| Caen win | 13% | 22% | 7.73 | value: +68% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Casimir Ninga · Caen |
| 25' | 🟨 | Yoël Armougom · Caen |
| 35' | 🟨 | Yoël Armougom · Caen |
| 35' | 🟥 | Yoël Armougom · Caen |
| 39' | ⚽ | Benjamin Bourigeaud · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 42' | 🟨 | Clément Grenier · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Fayçal Fajr · Caen |
| 58' | ⚽ | Adrien Hunou · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 62' | ⚽ | M'Baye Niang · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 69' | 🟨 | Prince Oniangué · Caen |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ramy Bensebaini · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| coach days |
| 99.00 |
| 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1644.37 | 1421.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.22 | -11.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 37.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.63 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |