← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 42% | 35% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 41% | 3.19 | value: +30% |
| OGC Nice win | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Stefan Mitrović · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 26' | ⚽ | Adrien Thomasson · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 41' | ⚽ | Lamine Koné · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 43' | 🟨 | Lebo Mothiba · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 904.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1532.90 | 1609.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.83 | 14.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.30 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.85 |
| league points | 23.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | 1.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 24.40 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | 1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |