← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 44% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.11 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 24% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Moussa Doumbia · Reims |
| 48' | ⚽ | Adrien Thomasson · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 65' | ⚽ | Mathieu Cafaro · Reims |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jacques-Alaixys Romao · Reims |
| 76' | 🟨 | Stefan Mitrović · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reims | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune II |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 593.00 | 897.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1618.93 | 1539.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.94 | 19.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 67.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| league points | 22.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.36 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.55 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |