← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Rainville
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 62% | 61% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.08 | fair |
| Dijon win | 15% | 15% | 6.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Laurent Ciman · Dijon |
| 69' | ⚽ | Benjamin Bourigeaud · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Benjamin Jeannot · Dijon |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mehdi Zeffane · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Hatem Ben Arfa · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 7.00 | 2351.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1577.03 | 1476.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.51 | -11.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.64 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | — |
| league points | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |