← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Wattellier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 56% | 57% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 18% | 19% | 5.39 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1.00 | 884.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1575.98 | 1512.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.55 | 4.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |