← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Sep 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 67% | 72% | 1.44 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.63 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 12% | 10% | 8.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 725.00 | 817.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1691.16 | 1493.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.57 | 5.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.00 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.48 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.18 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.77 | — |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |