← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Sep 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Miguelgorry
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 60% | 64% | 1.63 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.32 | fair |
| Dijon win | 18% | 16% | 5.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Moussa Dembélé · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 19' | ⚽ | Moussa Dembélé · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 35' | ⚽ | Martin Terrier · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 56' | 🟨 | Enzo Loiodice · Dijon |
| 59' | 🟨 | Lucas Tousart · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 66' | 🟨 | Lucas Tousart · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 66' | 🟥 | Lucas Tousart · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enzo Loiodice · Dijon |
| 90' | 🟥 | Enzo Loiodice · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 30 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 2278.00 | 1030.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1524.20 | 1743.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.18 | -17.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | 1.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.67 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.10 | 68.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| league points | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 20.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 1.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.92 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |