← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, Sep 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Schneider
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 77% | 83% | 1.25 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 15% | 11% | 6.47 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 8% | 6% | 12.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 75.00 | 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 3.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1890.40 | 1594.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.22 | 14.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.85 |
| league points | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.35 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.78 | — |
| state index | 1.46 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.96 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |