← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 79% | 78% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 7.09 | fair |
| Nimes win | 7% | 9% | 14.03 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Moustapha Diallo · Nimes |
| 18' | 🟨 | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 36' | ⚽ | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Ángel Di María · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Thomas Meunier · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 63' | ⚽ | Antonin Bobichon · Nimes |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Teji Savanier · Nimes |
| 77' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Teji Savanier · Nimes |
| 90' | 🟥 | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Edinson Cavani · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade des Costières |
| coach days | 1035.00 | 62.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.56 |
| elo | 1624.29 | 1883.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.82 | -26.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 2.04 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| league points | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 90.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 65.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 2.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.42 |
| state index | 0.83 | 1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.18 | 1.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |