← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 54% | 55% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.77 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 20% | 18% | 4.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 186.00 | 674.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1671.65 | 1524.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.54 | -15.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.61 |
| league points | 51.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.51 | 28.35 |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |