← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Fri, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 43% | 44% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.16 | fair |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 26% | 24% | 3.73 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Préjuce Nakoulma · Nantes |
| 40' | 🟨 | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 42' | ⚽ | Adrien Thomasson · Nantes |
| 43' | 🟨 | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 43' | 🟨 | Adrien Thomasson · Nantes |
| 46' | 🟨 | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 46' | 🟥 | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 68' | 🟨 | Diafra Sakho · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Sanjin Prcić · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 81' | ⚽ (og) | Nicolas Pallois · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Santy Ngom · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 262.00 | 170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 3.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1616.06 | 1665.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.34 | 4.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| league points | 45.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.02 | 25.07 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.42 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |