← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 68% | 67% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.01 | fair |
| Metz win | 12% | 15% | 7.93 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Jonathan Rivierez · Metz |
| 27' | ⚽ | Benjamin Bourigeaud · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 49' | 🟨 | Vahid Selimovic · Metz |
| 52' | ⚽ | Nolan Roux · Metz |
| 57' | ⚽ | Nolan Roux · Metz |
| 62' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Rivière · Metz |
| 74' | 🟨 | Julian Palmieri · Metz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ramy Bensebaini · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| coach days | 164.00 | 195.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1681.35 | 1511.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.58 | -5.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.63 |
| league points | 47.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.48 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 0.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.23 | 29.13 |
| state index | 0.86 | -1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |