← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 52% | 48% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.76 | value: +19% |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 22% | 20% | 4.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 707.00 | 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.16 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1678.15 | 1679.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.32 | 40.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 73.50 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 45.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.22 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.58 | 25.00 |
| state index | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |