← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 73% | 56% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 22% | 6.02 | value: +34% |
| OGC Nice win | 10% | 22% | 9.50 | value: +108% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Allan Saint-Maximin · OGC Nice |
| 21' | ⚽ | Ángel Di María · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Marco Verratti · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Dani Alves · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 686.00 | 655.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.26 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1670.58 | 1991.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.24 | 14.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 1.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.40 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.75 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| league points | 42.00 | 80.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 90.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 2.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.56 | 2.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 24.75 | 27.03 |
| state index | 0.55 | 1.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | 1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |